Duisburg: The CBAM threshold at the centre of the EU carbon border mechanism passed an early test on 30 September 2026, when a European Commission assessment found that a single 50-tonne mass limit would exempt 0.87% of embedded emissions, below the 1% ceiling. The finding gives importers and steelmakers their first hard number on how much carbon the simplified rules leave outside the system.

The CBAM threshold assessment rests on import data for the period from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026. Under the simplified rules, importers who bring in less than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods per year are exempt from the mechanism, and the Commission must reassess the level every year. The exemption does not apply to electricity or hydrogen.

At 0.87%, the CBAM threshold relieves small importers of reporting and certificate duties while carbon coverage of steel, aluminium, cement and fertiliser stays largely intact, according to a summary of the assessment. That balance was the political aim of the simplification, which tried to lighten the load on small firms without opening a loophole for large ones.

The CBAM threshold is one part of a busy month. On 28 September the Commission published guidance on verification and accreditation for verifiers who check emissions reports from non-EU installations making CBAM goods, and verifiers have had access to the CBAM Registry since 1 September 2026. The package includes rules for national accreditation bodies, a procedure for registry access, three user documents and three training videos.

The money side of the mechanism is still ahead. Importers above the threshold must be authorised declarants, a status required since 1 January 2026, and they must hold certificates covering 50% of embedded emissions at the end of each quarter, down from 80% before the simplification. Member states begin selling certificates on 1 February 2027 for 2026 imports, and the first annual declaration and surrender fall due on 30 September 2027.

Because the margin is narrow, the yearly review of the CBAM threshold matters. The distance between 0.87% and the 1% ceiling leaves only 0.13 percentage points of room, so a change in import patterns could push the exempted share close to the limit. If that happens, the Commission would have to look again at whether 50 tonnes remains the right number, and importers near the line could face new duties.

Trade partners will watch the review as closely as European firms. A mechanism that exempts too little invites complaints about red tape, while one that exempts too much invites complaints about leakage, and the Commission has to defend a number that sits between the two. For now the CBAM threshold looks safe, and the data suggest that the simplified system can protect carbon coverage while sparing the smallest importers.