October 12, 2026

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The European Post

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October 12, 2026

Newsletter

The European Post

Policy • Diplomacy • strategic insight

LATEST
Social Security Coordination Reform Clears The Council After A DecadeCreative Europe 2027 Budget Sets €402 Million For Final YearNature Restoration Plans Reach Brussels As Review Clock StartsBerlin Sudan Aid Pledges Now Face A Delivery TestLebanon Tranche Ties EU Support For Lebanon To Reform GoalsLeaving The Parental Home Now Takes Until 26.3 Across The EUDigital Fairness Act Targets Dark Patterns Before Q4 DraftSatellite Operators Await The EU Space Act TriloguesCeuta Crisis Hangs Over Leaders Debate On Irregular Border CrossingsTen Warships Needed For Operation Aspides As Foreign Ministers MeetAmbassadors Weigh Digital Omnibus Cookie Rules On Sunday VoteHousing Exclusion Recommendation Heads To MinistersCapital Markets Supervision Package Wins A Council PositionPanama And Viet Nam Exit The EU Tax Blacklist In ReviewSixteen Capitals Run Late On The Consumer Credit Directive DeadlineBuilding Renovation Plans Leave Nine Capitals Facing EU Legal ActionEU-China Hybrid Car Deal Leaves Leaders To Judge Beijing’s OfferSwitzerland-EU Treaty Package Faces A Cantonal Majority Test In 2027Hybrid Threats Draw The EU Partnership Mission In ArmeniaFarm Quotas Hinge On The EU-Mercosur Interim Trade AgreementSocial Security Coordination Reform Clears The Council After A DecadeCreative Europe 2027 Budget Sets €402 Million For Final YearNature Restoration Plans Reach Brussels As Review Clock StartsBerlin Sudan Aid Pledges Now Face A Delivery TestLebanon Tranche Ties EU Support For Lebanon To Reform GoalsLeaving The Parental Home Now Takes Until 26.3 Across The EUDigital Fairness Act Targets Dark Patterns Before Q4 DraftSatellite Operators Await The EU Space Act TriloguesCeuta Crisis Hangs Over Leaders Debate On Irregular Border CrossingsTen Warships Needed For Operation Aspides As Foreign Ministers MeetAmbassadors Weigh Digital Omnibus Cookie Rules On Sunday VoteHousing Exclusion Recommendation Heads To MinistersCapital Markets Supervision Package Wins A Council PositionPanama And Viet Nam Exit The EU Tax Blacklist In ReviewSixteen Capitals Run Late On The Consumer Credit Directive DeadlineBuilding Renovation Plans Leave Nine Capitals Facing EU Legal ActionEU-China Hybrid Car Deal Leaves Leaders To Judge Beijing’s OfferSwitzerland-EU Treaty Package Faces A Cantonal Majority Test In 2027Hybrid Threats Draw The EU Partnership Mission In ArmeniaFarm Quotas Hinge On The EU-Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement

Gulf Flights Face The EU Aviation ETS From 2029 Under A Plan

Igor Stravinsky
Senior Reporter, Transport and Mobility

The EU aviation ETS would reach far beyond Europe’s borders from 2029 if the Commission’s July 2026 proposal survives negotiations with Parliament and Council. Under the plan, tabled on 17 July as part of a targeted revision of the emissions trading system, carbon pricing would apply to flights leaving European Economic Area airports for destinations within 5,000 kilometres of Frankfurt. Today the system covers only flights inside the EEA and departures to Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

The map behind the EU aviation ETS proposal is easy to read. Istanbul, Dubai and Riyadh would fall inside the perimeter, along with North Africa and most of the Middle East, while the United States, India, China, Brazil and Japan would stay outside. Flights from outermost regions to most non-EEA states, journeys involving least developed countries and small island developing states, and routes flown by very low-emitting operators would be exempt. Business jets would be pulled in more broadly because the Commission wants to drop the flight-number criterion.

The Commission justifies the move by arguing that CORSIA, the global offsetting scheme run through the International Civil Aviation Organization, has not been strengthened enough. CORSIA offset requirements begin in 2028 and cover emissions above 85 percent of 2019 levels. The Commission would reassess the scheme in 2032, and if it proves effective, the EU aviation ETS could shrink back to flights within the EEA. That review clause makes the proposal a probation test for the global system as much as a new carbon cost for airlines.

Money follows the politics. The proposal would lift support for sustainable aviation fuel to about €15 billion for 2029 to 2040, compared with €1.5 billion over eight years today, and it would extend reserved allowances to hydrogen and electric propulsion. Member states would have to spend at least half of their auction revenues on decarbonising ETS sectors, though not necessarily aviation. Airlines that welcome the fuel support still object to the geographic reach.

Opposition has been loud. IATA says it is deeply frustrated and argues that the plan displaces CORSIA inside the 5,000 kilometre perimeter and risks double charging, while ICAO shares those concerns. Airlines for America says the proposal breaks international agreements, and Emirates president Tim Clark called it a double whammy. Governments outside the Union may also resist being covered, which could slow adoption of the EU aviation ETS in the Council.

The legal path is long. The proposal, COM(2026) 616, needs approval from the 27 member states and the European Parliament, and it would apply from 1 January 2029 with national transposition due by the end of 2028. Negotiators must weigh climate ambition against the risk of retaliation and the position of European hubs that serve Gulf and Turkish routes.

For travellers, the effect per ticket would probably be modest but visible on long routes to Turkey and the Gulf. The harder question is diplomatic, namely whether Brussels can run the EU aviation ETS beside CORSIA without a dispute with its partners. The first working party discussions in the Council and the choice of lead committee in Parliament will show whether capitals want a narrower scope. In the end, the EU aviation ETS will be judged on whether it cuts emissions without pushing passengers toward hubs outside the Union.

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