Debrecen: Hungary has weeks left to prove it has cleaned up its courts, its public contracts and its anti-corruption defences, or it will forfeit the single largest pot of European money still hanging in the balance.

Under the Union’s post-pandemic recovery fund, Budapest must complete a long list of reforms by the end of August to unlock roughly ten billion euros. Much of that sum has sat frozen since Brussels judged the country’s rule-of-law safeguards too weak to trust with the cash.

The conditions are unusually specific. They include a set of so-called super-milestones covering judicial independence, the powers of the anti-corruption authority and the transparency of public tenders, each of which the Commission must certify before any payment flows.

Time is the enemy. Recovery money that member states fail to claim by set deadlines does not roll over indefinitely, and officials in both capitals concede that a large share of Hungary’s allocation could simply expire if the milestones go unmet.

The pressure on Hungary funds has not eased elsewhere. In July the Commission published its annual rule-of-law report, which again flagged concerns over media pluralism and judicial checks; the findings are set out here.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government insists it has met the spirit of the demands and accuses Brussels of moving the goalposts for political reasons. It has passed laws on judicial administration and asset declarations, though critics question how deeply the changes reach in practice.

The dispute runs deeper than one payment. It tests whether the Union can tie its money to democratic standards and make the link stick, a principle other governments watch closely as they weigh their own tussles with Brussels.

Opposition figures and civic groups in Hungary hold mixed feelings. Many want the reforms enforced but fear that losing the funds would hurt hospitals, schools and small towns like Debrecen far more than it would trouble the politicians in the capital.

The Commission has left a narrow path open. If Hungary satisfies the outstanding milestones in time, the frozen billions could still flow, and officials stress they would rather release the money against real change than see it lapse.

Should the deadline pass unmet, the loss would be historic in scale and a stark warning to any capital tempted to test the limits of the Union’s patience. The next few weeks will show whether that warning needs to be delivered.