Baltic Sea fishing quotas for 2027 go before EU fisheries ministers in Luxembourg on 26 and 27 October, and the proposal tells two very different stories. Herring and sprat fishers can expect larger catches, while cod and western herring face tighter limits. Ministers aim to reach political agreement on Tuesday, with formal adoption of the regulation expected in November.

The Commission tabled its proposal on 24 August, covering ten stocks managed by the EU. It follows scientific advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and the Baltic multiannual management plan adopted in 2016. Under the plan, the total allowable catches track the state of each stock, so the numbers vary sharply from one species to the next.

The biggest gains in the Baltic Sea fishing quotas go to the pelagic fleets. The proposed catch limit for central Baltic herring rises by 49%, reflecting strong recruitment that scientists now estimate. Sprat is up 44% after several difficult years, Gulf of Riga herring gains 11% and Bothnian herring edges up by 3%. Even so, the Commission notes that central Baltic and Bothnian herring remain below sustainable levels, which is why the Baltic Sea fishing quotas still carry a cautious tone.

Cod is the problem case. Both the eastern and western stocks are in poor condition, and the measures in place since 2019 have not rebuilt them. The Commission keeps the ban on targeted cod fishing and proposes cutting the by-catch allowance by 88% for western Baltic cod and by 51% for eastern Baltic cod. These cuts use member states’ own 2025 reports on unavoidable catches, so the figures reflect what fleets actually landed.

Western Baltic herring brings the sharpest political choice. The stock sits well below its minimum level, and the Commission proposes a 45% cut in the by-catch limit. It would also end the exemption that lets small-scale coastal vessels continue fishing, limiting every boat to unavoidable by-catch only. Coastal communities in Germany and Denmark will argue that the rule hits the smallest operators hardest, while conservation groups will say half-measures have already failed.

The Baltic Sea fishing quotas proposal leaves plaice and the main basin and Gulf of Finland salmon unchanged, because ICES has issued no new salmon advice for 2027. It also ends the three-month spawning closure for sprat, and discontinues recreational fishing for farmed salmon.

Ministers will weigh these Baltic Sea fishing quotas against social and economic pressure from their ports, but history suggests the Council usually stays close to the Commission on stocks in trouble. The more interesting test is whether member states accept the end of the coastal exemption. If they soften it, they will reopen the argument about whether the 2016 plan can deliver recovery for cod and western herring. If they hold firm, the Baltic Sea fishing quotas will show that science-based limits can survive a Council negotiation, even when a few fleets benefit from a year of generous herring and sprat catches.