Accession negotiations gained fresh momentum this month as the Western Balkans’ front-runner provisionally closed two more chapters, keeping it ahead of every other candidate in the queue. Montenegro’s tally now stands at 18 of 33 chapters, past the halfway mark.

At an accession conference in Brussels on 14 July, negotiators finalised chapter 8 on competition policy and chapter 29 on the customs union. Both count among the trickier files, since they force a candidate to prove that its markets and border systems can withstand the full weight of EU rules.

Podgorica has set itself an ambitious target. It aims to wrap up negotiations by the end of this year and to join the Union in 2028 as its 28th member. No other applicant carries a timeline that concrete, and Montenegrin officials treat the date as a national project rather than a distant aspiration.

The July progress built on momentum from June, when an earlier conference closed chapters on the free movement of workers and on health and consumer protection. Chapter by chapter, the country is assembling the record it needs to argue that its accession is a question of when rather than whether.

The contrast with the wider region sharpens the story. Albania closed three of its own chapters on the same day, covering science and research, education and culture, and external relations. Ukraine and Moldova, meanwhile, are still prising open negotiating clusters after years of political blockage, their paths slowed by war and by disputes only recently resolved.

For Brussels, Montenegro offers something the enlargement file has lacked for years, a candidate that moves on schedule. A visible success story lets the Commission argue that the process still works and still rewards reform, a message it badly needs as fatigue sets in across several capitals.

Yet the hardest chapters usually come last. Files on the rule of law, the judiciary and the fight against corruption have sunk timelines before, and Montenegro will have to satisfy sceptical member states that its courts and institutions can hold the line under pressure. Closing competition and customs signals capacity, but it does not settle the questions that most worry enlargement’s doubters.

National politics inside the Union add another variable. Any accession requires unanimous approval, and a single government can slow the final ratification for reasons that have little to do with Montenegro itself. The 2028 goal therefore depends on 27 capitals staying aligned through a stretch of elections and shifting coalitions.

Still, the direction of travel is clear. With 18 chapters now provisionally closed, Montenegro has converted a slogan about being the front-runner into a measurable lead. Whether it holds the pace through the toughest files will shape not only its own accession but the credibility of enlargement across the Western Balkans.