Stockholm: The tobacco tax directive faces its decisive test on 9 November 2026, when Ireland asks EU finance ministers meeting as the ECOFIN Council to reach political agreement on a long-stalled overhaul. Sweden has blocked earlier compromises since June, and the Irish presidency now has one meeting left before the file passes to Lithuania.
The European Commission proposed the revision in July 2025. According to Nicotine Insider, it would lift the minimum excise on cigarettes from 90 to 215 euros per 1,000 sticks, an increase of about 139 percent, and it would set minimum duties for heated tobacco, nicotine pouches and e-cigarette liquids. Member states remain free to tax above those floors, so the tobacco tax directive sets minimums, not retail prices.
Ireland circulated two new compromise texts on the tobacco tax directive on 20 and 21 October, and officials discussed them in a Council working party on 26 October. Vaping Post reports that the Irish version would for the first time subject e-liquids to a minimum excise duty. Both texts carry the restricted LIMITE marking, so the exact rates have not reached the public.
Unanimity decides the outcome, because EU tax law needs the approval of all 27 member states. Sweden is the main obstacle. Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said in June: “We’re going to stop the EU raising the tax on snuff!”, and Nicotine Insider reports that Stockholm remains opposed to the proposed treatment of oral nicotine products. Traditional snus falls outside the scope under Sweden’s accession arrangements, yet tobacco-free pouches would face harmonised minimum taxation.
Swedish politics complicates the tobacco tax directive vote on 9 November. Vaping Post reports that a caretaker government has run the country since 17 September, after the 13 September general election, and that the Riksdag had still not approved a new prime minister by late October. A caretaker cabinet rarely signs a tax deal that its own parliament opposes, which explains why Ireland pushed the vote back from the October ECOFIN.
Sweden is not alone. Vaping Post lists about ten member states with reservations since July 2025: Italy and Romania fear smuggling and effects on low-income smokers, Portugal defends its fiscal sovereignty, and Greece, Hungary, Croatia, Malta, Czechia, Slovakia and Luxembourg consider the proposed minimums too high. The same outlet says Parliament voted 439 to 181 against an earlier compromise text, a signal of how divided the institutions are.
If ministers fail on 9 November, Lithuania inherits the tobacco tax directive when its presidency starts on 1 January 2027 and runs to 30 June. The Council publishes the agenda and outcome of the 9 November ECOFIN meeting on its website, and the Council press release will show whether any capital moved.
For retailers, health groups and the nicotine industry, the stakes are practical. A deal would give vapes and pouches an EU-wide tax floor for the first time, while another failure would leave national rates to diverge further. The tobacco tax directive now depends on whether Stockholm can offer a mandate within nine days, and the answer will set the tone for Lithuania’s first months in 2027.
