Rønne: Baltic fishing quotas for 2027 would move sharply in opposite directions under a European Commission proposal that raises catch limits for herring and sprat while cutting by-catch allowances for cod and western herring. The Commission put forward limits for 10 EU-managed stocks on 24 August 2026, and fisheries ministers are due to discuss them at the Council meeting on 26 and 27 October.

The largest increase in the Baltic fishing quotas goes to central Baltic herring, whose total allowable catch would rise by 49%. Sprat would gain 44%, Gulf of Riga herring 11% and Bothnian herring 3%. Plaice, Main Basin salmon and Gulf of Finland salmon would stay unchanged. For fleets that target herring and sprat, those increases are the headline of the whole package.

Cod tells a different story. The Commission proposes to cut the by-catch limit for western Baltic cod by 88% and for eastern Baltic cod by 51%. By-catch means fish caught unintentionally while boats target other species. The proposal keeps those limits and adjusts them using member state reports from 2025, and the existing accompanying measures would continue.

Under the proposed Baltic fishing quotas, western Baltic herring faces a 45% by-catch cut, and the Commission would end the exemption for small-scale coastal fisheries so that catches are limited to unavoidable by-catches. It cites a stock that remains significantly below minimum levels. Ending the exemption will matter most to small boats that fish close to shore, because they lose a route that larger vessels never had.

The limits follow scientific advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and the Baltic Sea multiannual management plan adopted in 2016. Those two anchors explain why the Baltic fishing quotas are generous where stocks are strong and strict where they are not. Scientists provide the numbers, the plan sets the rules for turning them into limits, and ministers decide whether to accept the result.

Ministers can amend the figures, and formal adoption of the Baltic fishing quotas is expected later in November 2026. The next weeks will show whether member states accept the Commission’s split between growth and restraint, or whether they push for different treatment of cod and western herring, the two lines where the cuts are deepest.

The proposal also sits beside a wider debate about money. On 29 September the Council agreed a partial negotiating position that folds several fisheries and maritime funds into one toolbox for the 2028 to 2034 budget period, and that rule book will shape how coastal communities adapt to tighter limits.

For the people who work in the Baltic, the 2027 proposal offers a rare mix of good and bad news. Baltic fishing quotas that rise by almost half for one herring stock and fall by almost nine tenths for western cod by-catch show how unevenly the sea’s recovery is spread across species.