Antalya: COP31 Antalya opens today with the European Union carrying a five-point agenda and a weaker bargaining hand than it had a few years ago. The summit runs from 9 to 20 November, with Türkiye hosting and Australia leading the negotiations as President of Negotiations.
The split in leadership is itself a diplomatic signal. Environment Minister Murat Kurum speaks for the host as COP31 President-Designate, while Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate and energy minister, steers the negotiating text. Brussels will have to work with both, and it has asked the presidency to run an inclusive process that involves all member states.
The EU set out its COP31 Antalya priorities in a statement on 16 October. It wants science protected, including IPCC reports in time for the second Global Stocktake, and it presses countries without post-2030 national climate plans to file them in line with 1.5 degrees. It also wants the agreed goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency kept intact, with an orderly and fair move away from fossil fuels.
The remaining priorities are more procedural but just as political. The EU backs the Mitigation Work Programme beyond 2026, a lean Just Transition Mechanism and a working Global Goal on Adaptation covering water, food and critical infrastructure. It also asks for a more efficient UN climate process and safe civic space for observers in Türkiye.
The strongest card Brussels holds at COP31 Antalya is money and a credible home record. The Council reported on 29 October that the EU and its 27 member states provided 32.3 billion euros in public climate finance in 2025 and mobilised another 9.3 billion euros from private sources. The Commission says the Union is on track for its 2030 target of a 55 percent net emissions cut, with 90 percent by 2040 and neutrality by 2050.
The weakness at COP31 Antalya is the evidence of a widening gap. A UNEP report from 2 September concluded that the world is set to cross 1.5 degrees, and the presidency has asked governments to keep any overshoot as low and short as possible. Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra therefore faces a delicate task, because the EU wants to defend 1.5 degrees while accepting that governments must now discuss overshoot honestly.
The EU also has to decide which coalitions it will lead at COP31 Antalya. It proposes first-mover groups on clean electrification and carbon markets and backs the Electrify Now initiative, which fits its industrial interest in selling grids, heat pumps and clean power technology. Partners in the Global South will judge those proposals against the finance goal agreed in Baku, and many will ask whether pledges become payments.
Europe cannot dominate this summit, so it must build alliances with islands, African states and ambitious emerging economies. If the EU delivers a clear finance narrative and practical coalitions in the next two weeks, COP31 Antalya will show that its climate diplomacy still carries weight. If it arrives with slogans alone, the summit will expose how far its influence has shrunk.
