Brussels: Greenhouse gas emissions across the European Union fell by 1.6% in 2025, the European Commission reported on 9 November 2026, but the pace of decline is slowing just as the bloc needs it to speed up. The Commission published its 2026 Climate Action Progress Report alongside the annual Carbon Market Report, and together they give a mixed verdict on Europe’s climate course.

The headline numbers still look strong. Net greenhouse gas emissions now sit 39% below 1990 levels, while the EU economy grew by 74% over the same period. Brussels presents that gap as proof that decarbonisation and growth can move together, a message it will carry to the COP31 climate talks in Antalya this month.

The detail tells a more uneven story. Emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System dropped by about 2% in 2025, led by a 3.3% cut at industrial installations in iron and steel, cement and chemicals. Maritime emissions fell 4%, but aviation greenhouse gas emissions edged up 0.2%. Under the Effort Sharing Regulation, which covers transport, buildings, agriculture and waste, greenhouse gas emissions stayed broadly flat.

That flat line explains the sharpest part of the report. The Commission found that nine member states, Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta and Sweden, are not on track to meet their national 2030 targets. Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will write to each government, and the capitals will have three months to submit corrective action plans. The Commission then has four months to respond.

The bloc as a whole also falls short in these sectors. Projections put Effort Sharing emissions at about 38.5% below 2005 levels by 2030, against a 40% target. The land sector adds a further warning: net removals rose by around 11% last year, yet projections still show a gap of 40 to 55 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent against the 2030 land-use goal.

Carbon pricing keeps cutting greenhouse gas emissions while feeding public budgets. The Carbon Market Report shows that ETS auction revenue reached €43.2 billion in 2025, up 11% on 2024. Member states received €23.9 billion of that directly, money meant for decarbonisation support to households and industry.

Clean technology deployment offers the most encouraging signals. Wind and solar capacity reached 611 GW, around 49% of the total, according to the Commission. Buyers registered 1.9 million battery-electric cars, roughly one in six new cars, and heat pump additions climbed to 41 GW from 26 GW a year earlier.

The policy frame has also tightened. The amended European Climate Law, in force since April 2026, sets a binding cut of 90% in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared with 1990. In July the Commission proposed a reform of the ETS for 2030 to 2040, and in October it presented a Climate Resilience Framework. The report puts climate-related losses at €822 billion since 1980.

Brussels insists it remains fully committed to a net cut of at least 55% by 2030. However, the Commission concedes that the slower pace in 2025 means governments must accelerate in the second half of the decade, especially in road transport, heating and farming, where emissions have barely moved.

The coming months will test that commitment. Corrective plans from the nine lagging capitals, the ETS reform talks and the Antalya negotiations will show whether the EU can turn falling greenhouse gas emissions into a steady trend rather than a slowing one. The Commission’s announcement frames 2025 as progress, but the numbers show that the easiest cuts are already behind Europe.