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Europe’s Israel Deal Survives the Vote It Was Meant to Punish

Strasbourg: The clause that binds Europe’s trade with Israel to a promise of human rights was written to be invoked, and for the first time in the agreement’s quarter-century it has been. What the review of Article 2 has revealed, however, is not the leverage its supporters imagined but the limits of a union that agrees on outrage and little else.

The trigger was Gaza. The scope, deliberately, is wider. Diplomats framed the exercise around Israel’s respect for “human rights and democratic principles,” language broad enough to survive whatever ceasefire or collapse follows, and broad enough to spare governments the charge that they are reacting to a single war rather than a pattern. That breadth is the first tell. A review calibrated to avoid a verdict is a review designed to buy time.

The arithmetic explains the caution. Suspending the trade pillar of the Association Agreement would require a qualified majority, at least fifteen member states representing two-thirds of the bloc’s population, and that majority does not exist. Germany, Hungary and the Czech Republic have made plain they will not supply it. So the instrument that critics hold up as Europe’s decisive lever is precisely the one the treaties make hardest to pull, and everyone in the chamber knows it.

What Europe can do, it has already begun doing at the margins. In May the Council sanctioned settler organisations and individuals, the Nachala movement and its director, the NGO Regavim, the Amana cooperative bound up with Gush Emunim, freezing assets and barring travel. These measures are real, and they matter to the people named. They are also a substitute for the larger decision the union cannot take, a way of registering disapproval without paying its price.

The pressure from outside the institutions is harder to absorb. A citizens’ petition demanding full suspension has passed one million signatures across all twenty-seven states, obliging the Commission and Parliament to respond. United Nations experts have called suspension the minimum international law requires. The gap between what campaigners believe the law demands and what the union’s own rules permit is now the central fact of the relationship, and it will not close on its own.

There is a case for the sequencing Brussels has chosen. A standing review keeps a channel open, preserves unity by deferring the vote that would shatter it, and holds a sanction in reserve rather than spending it. If it produces incremental restraint, the patience will look wise. But the danger is the familiar one for European foreign policy, that process becomes the policy, that the review outlives the crisis that prompted it, and that Israel reads a union unable to act as a union it need not heed. The clause has been invoked. Whether it means anything is a question Europe has not yet been willing to answer.