Rehden: EU gas storage stood at about 72.6% of capacity on 8 November 2026, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, the weakest position for this point of the heating season in more than a decade. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says stocks entering winter were the lowest since 2013. Germany, home to the large Rehden site in Lower Saxony, sits at the centre of the problem.

How full is EU gas storage this winter

Stocks peaked at 74.96% on 28 October and have fallen every week since. A year earlier, the same tracker showed 82.6% on 8 November, while the 2021-2025 average for that date was close to 89%.

The weakness started last spring. Europe ended the 2025-2026 winter with storage only 28% full, against 34% a year before and a nine-year average near 40%, according to the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). Refilling from that low base cost up to €27 billion in 2026, ACER estimates.

Germany and the Netherlands lag behind

National figures diverge sharply. Germany entered November at about 61%, its lowest starting level for a winter, and slipped to roughly 59% by 8 November. The Netherlands stood near 63.5% and Austria near 64.3%.

Other markets look far safer. Italy held almost 89%, France about 81%, and Poland reported 99.2% on 1 November. This research desk reads the gap in EU gas storage as a structural signal: the countries with the largest storage fleets relied most on market incentives that failed this year.

Why the 2026 refill season fell short

Three forces drained the refill effort for EU gas storage. First, the war involving Iran disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, the only export route for Qatari and Emirati LNG. The IEA expects global LNG supply to fall by about 3%, or 20 billion cubic metres, in 2026, the steepest annual drop on record.

Second, summer gas cost almost as much as winter gas. Without a price spread, traders had little reason to inject. Third, the Commission points to a hot, dry summer that pushed utilities to burn more gas for power.

Prices reflect the squeeze. Wholesale gas reached about €97 per megawatt hour in late October, the highest level since 2022.

What the storage regulation allows

The 2022 storage regulation set a mandatory 90% target, and the Council extended it to the end of 2027. Member states may now meet the target at any point between 1 October and 1 December. Under poor market conditions they may deviate by up to 10 percentage points, and the Commission can grant a further 5 points.

That flexibility explains why low EU gas storage has not triggered infringement action. The Commission says it sees no immediate supply threat, and the Gas Coordination Group continues to meet regularly.

The stress case

The IEA models a colder winter combined with continued Hormuz disruption. In that stress case, EU gas storage could fall below 10% by the end of March 2027. The agency stresses this is not its central forecast, yet it also notes that withdrawal rates decline once sites drop below 30% full.

What happens next

Policy choices now overlap with the supply squeeze. The ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts remains on track for January 2027, and the Council aims for a compromise in December. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has warned that nearly 50 million Europeans cannot adequately heat their homes, and governments have already spent €17.9 billion on short-term relief this year.

The coming weeks will test how much buffer remains. If January brings cold weather and Gulf cargoes stay scarce, EU gas storage will decide whether Europe manages this winter through markets or through emergency demand cuts.