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Farm Budget Merger Sparks Fears of Deep Cuts to Rural Europe

Warsaw: For farmers across Poland’s vast grain belt and the rest of the union, the fight over Europe’s next long-term budget has become a fight over their own survival. At the centre of it sits a Commission proposal that would fold the Common Agricultural Policy into a sprawling new National and Regional Partnership Fund worth some 865 billion euros, pooling farm money with cohesion, migration and social spending into a single pot managed largely from national capitals. To its authors, the plan is a long-overdue simplification. To much of the farming world, it looks like the moment the CAP stops being a policy and becomes a line item.

The Commission insists the core of farm support is protected. It has ring-fenced at least 300 billion euros for income and crisis measures, of which roughly 293.7 billion is earmarked for direct payments and a further 6.3 billion set aside as a so-called unity safety net for markets thrown into turmoil. A new Degressive Area-Based Income Support scheme would pay farmers by the hectare while trimming the cheques of the largest estates, capping any single farm at 100,000 euros a year. On paper it is fairer, flatter and easier to administer than the tangle of entitlements it replaces.

The reassurance has not landed. Lawmakers from left to right have warned that merging the CAP into a broader fund strips agriculture of its guaranteed floor and leaves rural spending to compete, year by year, against every other national priority. Analysts circulating the numbers in Parliament this month put the practical effect bluntly: by 2035, real-terms farm funding could fall roughly a third below its 2020 level. In a sector already squeezed by input costs, weather shocks and thin margins, a cut of that scale reads less like reform than retreat.

What worries farm groups almost as much is the loss of common rules. Under the proposal, member states would no longer be obliged to reserve money for young farmers, environmental schemes or wine programmes, deciding instead what to fund from their national envelopes. Brussels calls this subsidiarity. Critics call it renationalisation by another name, and warn it could fracture the single market for food into 27 competing support regimes, rewarding richer treasuries and leaving poorer ones exposed.

The timing sharpens the stakes. As recently as 2 July the Commission was still listing food security and rural areas among its stated budget priorities, even as it defended the very structure farmers fear will hollow them out. That gap between rhetoric and architecture is precisely what the coming negotiation must close. Predictability, after all, is not a slogan a farmer can plant.

None of this is settled. The proposal now enters years of bargaining between the Commission, the Council and a Parliament that has already signalled it wants a bigger, stand-alone agriculture budget rather than a merged fund. Farmers, for their part, are unlikely to wait quietly for the outcome. The question Europe must answer is whether simpler and cheaper can be made to mean anything other than smaller, and whether food sovereignty can survive being treated as one competing claim among many.