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LATEST
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How Beijing’s Rare Earth Lever Shadows Europe’s Green Plans

Beijing: Europe’s climate ambitions and its dependence on China meet at an uncomfortable junction, and nowhere is that clearer than in the trade of rare earth elements. The magnets that spin inside wind turbines and drive electric motors rely on materials that China processes and increasingly chooses to ration. Two waves of Chinese export controls in 2025, justified on national security grounds, were a reminder that the inputs to Europe’s green transition can be turned into instruments of pressure.

The immediate temperature has cooled. Late last year Beijing suspended the harsher second wave of controls until November 2026 and floated a green channel to speed approvals for qualified European buyers. But a suspension is not a guarantee, and the reprieve runs out at almost exactly the moment Europe will be accelerating turbine and vehicle production to meet its decarbonisation targets. Planning a continent’s energy future around a license that expires on someone else’s calendar is not a comfortable position.

The rare earth question has also become entangled with the dispute over electric vehicles. Brussels imposed countervailing tariffs of up to roughly thirty-five percent on Chinese-made cars, and Beijing has made little secret of its willingness to link cooperation on minerals to relief on those duties. What looks like a technical conversation about export licences is in truth a negotiation in which clean-energy inputs are the bargaining chip and the EV market is the prize. Each side holds something the other needs, which is a recipe for managed tension rather than resolution.

Europe’s structural answer is to use less Chinese material and to recapture more of its own. The Commission has moved to restrict exports of rare earth waste and battery scrap so that valuable material recovered on European soil is recycled at home rather than shipped abroad. Paired with the new critical minerals partnership signed with Australia and a push for domestic refining, the strategy is coherent on paper. The problem, as always, is time. Recycling streams are thin, refineries take years to permit and build, and demand is climbing faster than supply can be localised.

There is a deeper irony in the standoff. The faster Europe decarbonises, the more rare earths it consumes, and the more exposed it becomes to a supplier it is simultaneously trying to de-risk away from. A slower transition would reduce the vulnerability but betray the climate goals that justify the whole enterprise. The continent cannot escape this tension by wishing it away, only by building the alternative supply chains fast enough to outrun it.

That is the real measure of whether Europe’s green industrial policy is serious. Subsidies for factories mean little if the magnets inside the machines depend on a quota set in Beijing. The window before the export-control suspension lapses is a chance to lock in alternative sources, scale up recycling and turn fine-sounding strategies into tonnes of processed material.

If that window closes with Europe still reliant on Chinese goodwill, the lesson of the past two years will have gone unlearned. The green transition is not only an engineering challenge or a financing one. It is a question of who controls the materials, and on that question Europe is still playing catch-up.