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Economic security toolbox extends to outbound investment screening

Strasbourg: The European Union’s economic security architecture has matured into a multi-instrument framework spanning foreign direct investment screening, outbound investment review, export controls, anti-coercion measures and trade defence. The framework’s intellectual origin lies in the 2023 Economic Security Strategy, which framed strategic dependencies as a category of geopolitical risk to be managed alongside traditional security threats. By 2026, the operational architecture is largely in place, with the next phase shifting from instrument design to coordinated enforcement.

The revised Foreign Direct Investment Screening Regulation, in application since the second half of 2025, extends mandatory cooperation between the Commission and Member States to cover all foreign investments in critical sectors. Member States that previously operated without national screening mechanisms — including Ireland, Belgium and Cyprus until recently — have established statutory frameworks, bringing the bloc closer to comprehensive coverage. The Commission’s annual report on FDI screening shows that more than 1,800 transactions were notified in 2024, with a third subject to formal cooperation procedures. The proportion of blocked or mitigated transactions has remained low — well below 2 per cent — but the deterrent effect on transactions that are never tabled is significant.

Outbound investment screening, an unprecedented instrument at EU level, remains in development. The Commission’s recommendation on a coordinated approach to outbound investments, issued in 2024, focused on quantum technologies, advanced semiconductors and AI. A subsequent monitoring exercise during 2025 collected data on outbound flows from EU-headquartered companies into sensitive technology areas in jurisdictions of concern. The eventual legislative proposal, expected in late 2026, is likely to combine notification obligations with a coordinated assessment mechanism rather than prior authorisation, mirroring the FDI screening architecture.

Export controls have been reinforced through the Dual-Use Regulation’s coordination provisions and through targeted national catch-all controls. The Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group continue to provide the multilateral baseline, but the EU has increasingly used autonomous measures to address sensitive items not yet covered by international consensus — particularly in AI compute, advanced semiconductors and quantum technologies. The Commission’s coordination role has grown through a streamlined consultation mechanism that reduces processing times for license applications involving multiple Member States.

The Anti-Coercion Instrument, in application since December 2023, gives the Commission a structured response capacity when third countries deploy economic pressure to interfere with Member State or Union policy choices. The instrument has not yet been formally activated, but the Commission has used its existence as a deterrent in trade-related disputes. Preparatory work continues on the procedural choreography that would govern an actual deployment, including consultations with affected industry sectors and coordination with WTO obligations.

The Critical Raw Materials Regulation, in application since 2024, sets benchmarks for the EU’s strategic autonomy in 34 raw materials critical for industrial competitiveness and the green and digital transitions. The targets — 10 per cent extraction, 40 per cent processing and 25 per cent recycling within the EU by 2030, and a maximum of 65 per cent supply from any single third country — frame an industrial policy agenda that combines investment incentives, permitting acceleration and strategic project designations. The Commission designated the first batch of Strategic Projects in 2025, covering lithium, rare earths and graphite operations across multiple Member States.

The Net-Zero Industry Act complements the raw materials strategy by setting an ambition for at least 40 per cent of strategic clean technology demand to be met by domestic manufacturing capacity by 2030. The instrument expedites permitting for net-zero strategic projects and introduces non-price criteria for public procurement of clean technologies — including resilience and sustainability requirements that effectively raise the floor for non-EU competitors. Industry has welcomed the framework while signalling that the speed and predictability of implementation will determine its real-world impact.

Cybersecurity and supply chain resilience have been integrated into the broader economic security framework through the NIS2 Directive, the Cyber Resilience Act and the Critical Entities Resilience Directive. The Commission’s stress-test exercises on energy, telecommunications and financial infrastructure have produced the methodological baseline for systematic resilience monitoring. A horizontal economic security risk-screening mechanism, proposed for late 2026, would consolidate currently dispersed risk-assessment capacities under a single Commission interservice structure with periodic reporting to the Council and the European Parliament.