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Madrid Lens On 2026 Rule Of Law Cycle Flags 13 Backsliding States

Madrid: A Spanish-led reading of this year’s rule-of-law cycle paints a sober picture for the European Union, with thirteen member states judged to be slipping or actively dismantling democratic safeguards. The assessment, published as part of the Liberties Rule of Law Report 2026 and discussed at length during a civil-society convening in the Spanish capital, sets the tone for the Commission’s own annual report expected before the summer recess.

The headline finding is stagnation. Across the recommendations issued by the Commission in the previous cycle, 61 per cent show no progress or no visible progress. A further 13 per cent represent active backsliding, situations in which conditions have demonstrably worsened since the recommendation was tabled. Only a small minority of cases register meaningful improvement, prompting Liberties researchers to argue that the soft-power design of the cycle has reached the limits of what naming-and-shaming can deliver.

Country classifications crystallise the picture. Five governments are placed in the ‘Dismantlers’ tier: Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia. Seven sit in the ‘Sliders’ tier, including Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Malta, formerly classified as a Stagnator, and Sweden. Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain itself fit broadly within the ‘Stagnators’ band. Only Latvia earns the ‘Hard Workers’ designation, on the strength of follow-through on judicial-independence and media-pluralism reforms.

Several cross-cutting trends emerge. Fast-track and non-transparent legislative procedures feature prominently, with researchers logging a marked rise in the use of urgency ordinances, omnibus packages and limited committee scrutiny across the bloc. Media concentration and the operating conditions of public-service broadcasters remain pressure points in several capitals, while the implementation of the European Media Freedom Act is described as patchy. Civic-space restrictions, including foreign-influence registration regimes and constrained access to assembly, are flagged in a growing list of jurisdictions.

The Commission’s parallel preparation of the 2026 Rule of Law Report is now drawing scrutiny on its own terms. Officials close to the file say the structured country chapters will retain the four-pillar template covering justice systems, anti-corruption, media pluralism and institutional checks and balances. New for this cycle is a deeper treatment of conditionality, with cross-references to the Recovery and Resilience Facility and to the Common Provisions Regulation governing cohesion outlays. That linkage matters because it has begun, however unevenly, to translate findings into financial consequences for the states judged most at risk.

Member-state reaction will run through the General Affairs Council, where the rule-of-law dialogue format has been refined since 2020 to allow horizontal as well as country-specific exchanges. Hungary and Slovakia have signalled that they will challenge methodology choices, while Italy is expected to dispute the Dismantlers tagging given recent constitutional-court engagement on contested government reforms. Civil-society coalitions, for their part, are pressing the Council and the European Parliament to bind the next Multiannual Financial Framework more tightly to the cycle’s findings, arguing that without sharper teeth, the 13-state backsliding trajectory will harden into a structural feature of the Union.