The post-2027 CAP is entering its most delicate fortnight, because Irish Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon wants the Council to agree a partial general approach when farm ministers meet on 26 and 27 October 2026. Ministers took stock of the file in Brussels on 28 September under the Irish presidency, and Heydon said they moved a step closer to a policy fit for the future. No decision was taken, and the hardest questions are still open.
The Council reviewed the draft regulation and gave the presidency political guidance on the outstanding issues. Ministers welcomed a stronger balance between common EU rules and national flexibility, and they asked for simpler rules to cut the administrative burden on farmers and national administrations. They also pressed for more room on the degressivity of direct payments and on capping.
Three disputes shape the post-2027 CAP talks. The first is the definition of an active farmer, where some capitals oppose an EU-wide rule that would require farming to be a person’s main economic activity. The second is degressive area-based income support, which tapers payments as farms grow, and Sweden has questioned whether the savings should favour smaller farms, younger farmers or those in greater difficulty. The third is how far national authorities can steer allocated funds, with several capitals wanting more national discretion.
Money hangs over every one of those debates. The Commission has proposed about €294 billion for the CAP in the 2028-2034 period, roughly a 20 percent nominal cut, and it would replace the current two-pillar structure with a single fund. Ireland’s indicative allocation would fall from €10.7 billion to €8.16 billion, a reduction of between 20 and 24 percent, which Heydon has called a major concern. The ministers noted that degressivity and capping are being handled alongside the 2028-2034 budget negotiating box, so the post-2027 CAP cannot close before the wider budget moves.
Fertiliser costs add a second layer of pressure. At a working lunch on 28 September, ministers discussed the Fertiliser Action Plan, which the Commission adopted on 27 July with a €540 million support package, and they signalled that input costs should be tied to the CAP debate. On 31 July the Commission added targeted CAP adjustments, including a liquidity scheme co-financed up to 65 percent by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, advance direct payments before 16 October and extra flexibility on 2027 direct payments.
The geopolitical backdrop is equally heavy. Ministers examined the agricultural markets and the challenges facing the sector in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Ukrainian Minister Taras Vysotskyi briefed them in person. That session shows how the CAP now doubles as a tool of food security and strategic autonomy, not only an income scheme.
If the Council reaches a partial general approach in late October, the file moves towards negotiations with Parliament and the Commission. That is a milestone rather than a finish line, since a partial mandate leaves the budget-dependent questions unresolved. Farmers will read the outcome in terms of income stability, simpler paperwork and fertiliser relief, and the post-2027 CAP will be judged on whether it delivers all three. For now, the Irish presidency has three weeks to turn guidance into a position that capitals can sign.
